Mini LED Backlit LCD TVs to Surpass OLED TVs by 2025: Market Shift and Capacity Expansion

The landscape of high-end television displays is undergoing a significant transformation, with Mini Led backlit LCD TVs poised to surpass OLED TVs in terms of shipments by 2025. This shift is driven by the rapid development of Mini LED technology and the strategic capacity expansion of major LCD panel manufacturers, particularly in China.

According to Omdia's upcoming "Mini LED Backlight Market Tracking Report," the shipment of LCD TV panels equipped with Mini LED backlighting is expected to surpass OLED TV panels by 2025. This trend poses a lasting threat and influence on OLED TVs in the high-end TV market. The relatively high manufacturing costs of OLED TVs, coupled with the rapid development of Mini LED backlight technology, have provided more opportunities for Mini LED backlit LCD TVs to challenge OLED TVs in terms of image quality and cost.

Since 2020, OLED TV panels have seen shipments surpass the 5 million mark annually. Technologies such as Samsung Display's QD OLED and LG Display's WOLED have dominated the high-end flat-panel TV market with their ultra-thin designs, high dynamic contrast, and superior color performance. However, the rapid growth of Mini LED backlight LCD TVs, driven by the development of China's supply chain for Mini LED backlighting, including chips, epitaxy, backlight panels, and control chips, has significantly impacted the market.

From 2023 onwards, the shipment of Mini LED backlit LCD TV panels has grown rapidly. In 2023, the shipment was 3.5 million units, while OLED TV panels declined from 7.5 million in 2022 to 5.3 million. In 2024, OLED TV panel shipments are expected to reach 6.8 million, while Mini LED backlit LCD TV panels are expected to grow beyond expectations, reaching 6 million units. By 2025, Omdia predicts that OLED TV panel shipments will be 7.1 million, while Mini LED backlit LCD TV panels will break through the 10 million threshold, reaching 13.5 million units.

This shift represents a long-term trend, as Mini LED backlit LCD TVs are increasingly challenging OLED TVs in the high-end market. The development of Mini LED backlighting has given LCD TV panels a continuous opportunity for growth in the high-end market, even replacing some of the market share that would have gone to OLED TVs. Manufacturers such as BOE and China Star Optoelectronics are expanding their capacity for high-end LCD TV panels. Notably, BOE is optimizing and increasing equipment at its Gen10.5 factory, while China Star Optoelectronics plans to acquire LG Display's Gen8.5 TFT LCD factory in Guangzhou, which has IPS wide-angle technology, starting from April 2025.

In terms of LCD TV panel shipments, the acquisition of LG Display's Gen8.5 capacity by China Star Optoelectronics will enable it to surpass the 50 million annual shipment threshold. In 2024, LCD TV panel shipments reached 243 million units, showing growth compared to 2023. However, in 2025, with the shutdown of some older 10th-generation lines, LG Display's exit, and manufacturers focusing more on large-size LCD TV panel shipments, the shipment is expected to decline slightly to 239 million units. Despite this, the overall shipment area is expected to grow by more than 5% annually, indicating a market-driven focus on large sizes and high-end demands.

Omdia's Display Research Director, Qian Yi, stated, "The trend towards larger and extra-large LCD TVs equipped with Mini LED backlighting poses a long-term threat to OLEDTVs in the high-end flat-panel TV market. In the current context, where other new display technologies such as Micro Led or near-eye displays have not yet had the opportunity to replace LCDs in TV applications, there will be a continuous supply shortage for LCD panels in terms of area and large sizes. Therefore, panel manufacturers are expanding capacity, whether through process optimization at existing factories or through acquisitions to add LCD capacity. In particular, China's TFT LCD panel manufacturers are more active in expanding capacity, which also represents their long-term leadership in the TV panel market."

Despite the increasing penetration of OLED in many display applications, LCD technology, led by Chinese manufacturers, is expected to maintain its dominance in medium and large-size applications such as TVs, displays, notebooks, and automotive displays, thanks to its economic scale and cost-effectiveness. This trend is expected to continue for some time, with Mini LED backlighting playing a crucial role in driving the growth of high-end LCD TV panels.